Written by Geoff Cutmore    Friday, 11 June 2010 09:59    PDF Print E-mail
What is the Safest Trade under a new Government?

Geoff Cutmore presenter on business channel CNBC Geoff Cutmore presenter on business channel CNBC

Confession time; equity markets care not a jot in the medium term who runs the country. That is more true in this election than any other in the UK’s history. The colossal £176 billion government deficit will curtail the ambitions of the most spendthrift Chancellor. So with the current state of finances being what they are, what can the politicians do to threaten your investments?

Not much is the answer (although they will certainly try to get their hands on any profit you make).

Frankly, markets take very little notice of governments regardless of their political persuasion.

What matters more is economic cycles, and politicians are not very good at managing them, or changing their progress.

The last few years have shown how little politicians can actually do to affect the business cycle. Gordon Brown’s promise to abolish ’boom and bust’ all rings rather hollow now. The Bank of England can ‘create’ money through low interest rates and other monetary strategies, possibly delaying a recession, but ultimately the cycle must peak and trough before renewing itself.

So the key to a safe investment is to focus on the market environment. Despite the FTSE 100 spending a decade below the 6,930 peak it reached in 1999, the outlook still favours stocks. That might be a tough sell to the generation of new investors who dipped their toe into equity investing for the first time through simple FTSE index trackers and still wonder why this ‘low risk’ financial product lost them half their investment. But its time to get over that (finally!), if you are going to stand half a chance of making money.

With the current state of finances being what they are, what can the polititians do to threaten your investments? With the current state of finances being what they are, what can the polititians do to threaten your investments?

Stocks are the answer because the alternatives look even less attractive. Ultra low interest rates make cash look dull and frankly unable to keep pace with retail price inflation. That means the purchasing power of your savings is slowly being eroded. The sclerotic rates of interest being offered in high street savings accounts should be warning enough of what a poor asset class cash is these days.

Government debt, or Gilts, remain vulnerable to Britain’s huge fiscal deficit. The fear is that Greece has provided a dry run for what the UK could also suffer. A new UK government is going to struggle to reign in the deficit, which means yields are likely to rise and prices fall as investors demand a higher return for lending their money. This is not a good outcome for holders of gilts who will see the value of their holdings fall.

Corporate debt would be more exciting if prospects for the UK economy looked brighter.

Growth is likely to remain sluggish which doesn’t auger well for corporate spreads which would need to tighten for investors to make money. Concerns about debt in the economy dog the outlook, which is making lenders nervous about the risk of corporate insolvency.

So why equities?

The slow and steady state of the economic recovery should at least underpin current share prices.

Companies have used the slowdown to cut staff and streamline operations, which is generating operational efficiencies.

Without strong revenue growth this doesn’t justify a strong uplift in share prices, but at least any declines should be modest and dividend paying stocks will reward investors with income. In fact city strategists are particularly keen on the dividend paying stocks currently, arguing that in a low return environment like this, a safe yield with the potential for capital gain is about as good as it gets.

And remember! While the new government will not be able to determine how you profit from your investments - your next challenge is to work out how to stop them getting their hands on it.

By Geoff Cutmore
presenter on business channel CNBC
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